Arizona, florida, north carolina, pennsylvania, michigan, wisconsin, and nebraskas 2nd district, walter says. Below are fair lines americas updated 2018 estimates for reapportionment following the 2020 census. These ratings take into consideration the 2016 and 2018 results as well as what weve learned about the political coalitions that currently makeup the trump and democratic bases. In the end, the winner of the race is the candidate who receives a majority 270 or. Newly released government population estimates suggest the presidential battlegrounds of florida and north carolina could make gains in the electoral college when congressional seats are. Trump 2020 win projected by 3 different models, new york. Click on a state to reveal specific details including a timeline of seat apportionment from 1910 to 2020. For mitt romney to have won in the electoral college he needed the national popular vote to shift a net 5. The rust belt elevated trump, but its electoral power is. In addition to projections at the national level, the report includes projections of public elementary and secondary.
Partisan consistency in the electoral college, 20002016. Becasue for the 2020 prediction, ind voters might be less favor the opposition party in presidential year. Voters will select presidential electors who in turn will vote on december 14, 2020, to either elect a new president and vice president or reelect the incumbents donald trump and mike pence respectively. Our initial electoral college ratings reflect a 2020 presidential election that starts as a tossup.
Ny times piece says 3 different projection models point to trump 2020 win. This is the final annual update before the 2020 census, which will set the population of the united states as of april 1, 2020. What sets apart the moodys analytics models and their predecessors from similar efforts is a focus on regional economic growth that produces statebystate projections of the electoral college outcome. Jan 23, 2015 early census data shows electoral college advantage for republicans. Heres the projected electoral map after the 2020 census the united states will choose a new president in 2020, but well also be getting a new electoral college map after the 2020 census.
Demographic shifts show 2020 presidential race could be close. This project uses statistical projections of the 2010 and 2020 us censuses to create two electoral college maps. Realclearpolitics election 2020 democratic delegate count. The estimates are based on four measures of the presidents. The current electoral college ratings for the 2020 presidential election from larry sabato and the team at the university of virginia center for politics. Jan 24, 2019 there is at least one plausible electoral college scenario that produces a 269269 tie, which would throw the presidential election to the house of representatives elected in 2020.
Pollster mark zandi had three electoral college projections for 2020 and donald trump came out on top for all three. Here is our 2020 electoral map which begins with the final numbers from the 2016 presidential election won by donald trump over hillary clinton. Former white house chief strategist steve bannon made a bold prediction saturday that president trump would accomplish something in 2020 that no presidential candidate has done in nearly 30 years. Reapportionment projections and the potential impact of new. The result, a 119page report by the national intelligence council titled mapping the global future, is an eerie and illuminating read with 2020 now upon us. New census data projects which states could gain or lose. Dec 27, 2019 he says president trump will easily win reelection, according to three different economic models that moodys used to gauge the 2020 race. Joe biden vs donald trump 2020 electoral map prediction projecting the 2020 election results in this video i go through each state predicting and projecting who would win a hypothetical. How the electoral map is moving toward republicans cnnpolitics. Compare the current 2020 presidential map projections of various political pundits. Two political handicappers say the electoral college map now leans. Census bureaus total population estimates for its forecast. Tuchfarber, key points from this article the 2020 election may effectively be decided by six crucial swing states, all of which featured margins of less than two percentage points in 2016.
Az and mt lose their bellwether status that will gain in the 2020 s. Use the buttons below the map to share your forecast or embed it into a web page. Pol census projections show gains for republicans in. The official changes should be known in late december, 2020.
Voters will select presidential electors who will then vote on december 14, 2020 to either elect a new president and vice president or reelect the incumbents. How realistic is my 2020 electoral college prediction. Consensus electoral map as of april 3, 2020 a consensus outlook for the 2020 presidential election based on the current ratings of sabatos crystal ball, the cook political report and inside elections. Crystal balldecision desk hq democratic delegate tracker. Use the buttons below the map to share your forecast. Use nbc news interactive electoral vote map to see scenarios for each partys path to the presidency in 2020, with commentary and picks from chuck todd and.
This report provides revisions of projections shown in projections of education statistics to 2019. That was in 2016 when it wrongly predicted that hillary clinton would win the electoral college. I have a hard time believing that washington will not increase in the electoral college. Create your own forecast for the 2020 presidential election. Looking ahead to the 2020 electoral college map, my model delivers on two of the most critical elements of election forecasting. Accessing the esri 2020 congressional apportionment projections and the potential impact of statehood changes story map will provide additional information on the apportionment projections and what if scenarios discussed in this blog. Census projections show gains for republicans in electoral. Our first ratings of the 2020 electoral college map 2 show both parties well within reach of victory. With 16 months to go, negative partisanship predicts the. To create your own forecast for the 2020 election, click on the states in the map to toggle them between democrat, republican and tossup and watch the electoral map tallies change.
Trumps reelection chances versus biden look grim, 2020. This house vote model has democrats winning the electoral college in 2020 by a score of 296 to 242. An electoral college map detailing a possible prediction for the 2020 presidential election is getting some modest shares across social media, as it purports that president donald trump would lose in a landslide to a generic democratic candidate. Terrible news for dems in 2020 census projections show big. Track the election with a redblue map of the us updated daily using the. Changes in the level of representation for different states and in their relative strengths in the electoral college will, as always, be politically consequential. The pivotal year in politics may be 2020 we already know demographic trends can drive election results, but whats surprising is how quickly the map could change for good. Menu icon a vertical stack of three evenly spaced horizontal lines. Many voters are still upset that in 2000, republican george w. Alone, the presidents relative advantage in the electoral college.
The projection applies economic trends to swing states to forecast who will assemble a winning margin in the. In just one week, the electoral map has swung dramatically in favor of democratic presidential nominee hillary clinton. Census projections showing electoral college gains for gop census projections have bad news for democrats. Feb 16, 2017 the rust belt elevated trump, but its electoral power is dwindling. As the democratic primary winds down, with a biden nomination a delegatemath inevitability even if contests remain on the calendar, it is time for one of the few updates i plan to my forecast, this one, the postprimary update. While this is largely democrats who are upset, supporters of the losing candidate would be sour in any similar situation.
Republican president donald trump is seeking a second term in 2020. Arts design fashion architecture luxury beauty video. Four states in midwest projected to lose congressional seats. Lets just assume that clinton and trump are running for 2020. Voters will select presidential electors who in turn will vote on december 14. There are six states and one congressional district in tossup.
By 2020, the report estimates, the percentage of eligible voters who fall into the category of white without a college degree, will drop by 2 points, from 46 percent in 2016 to 44 percent. Dec 22, 2016 census data shed light on 2020 redistricting. The 2020 united states presidential election is scheduled for tuesday, november 3, 2020. Introducing the cook political reports 2020 electoral. Here is the electoral college map oxford projects delivering trump a win.
Projection shows seven states could gain congressional. Bush beat democrat al gore for president by winning the electoral college while losing the popular vote. New electoral map comes into focus ahead of 2020 census data analysts have a good idea about what the new electoral college map will look. Adjust the turnout and twoparty vote to simulate 2016 presidential election scenarios. Create a specific matchup by clicking the party andor names near the electoral vote counter. Our first pass at the 2020 electoral college ratings. Maptitude is the best mapping software for business intelligence. Rendell said, for us, there is no map that we can carry the electoral college without michigan, wisconsin and. No state has added more people since 2010 than texasa whopping 3. There are, of course, some major caveats to be considered. But with signs that college educated people, inner suburbs, women, african americans, latino americans, asian americans, and young people are alienated from donald trump and the republican party, here is my estimate of what might happen, subject to change, and a final judgment in late october of 2020. Jan 29, 2015 but projections only get more certain as we get closer to 2020, and yet again there will be winners and losers in the reapportionment process. The democrats currently have a popular vote advantage in presidential elections. Census data shed light on 2020 redistricting realclearpolitics.
A map showing trump losing the 2020 election is going. November 3, 2020 election day the voters in each state choose electors to serve in the. Electoral college projection for 2020 the progressive. Based on trumps current average approval rating in national polls and modest economic growth, the model suggests an extremely close 2020 result in the electoral college. I used statebystate population projections 1 and then calculated vote apportionment 2 to determine what the electoral map would look like.
Click states on this interactive map to create your own 2020 election forecast. Just days before 2020 voting begins, the census bureau released its latest statebystate population projections, numbers that give us a pretty clear sense of what the electoral and congressional maps will look. Electoral college for us presidential elections, 20122020. The winners of the 2020 election will be inaugurated on january 20, 2021. The electoral college s systemic bias for softening the rough, potentially dangerous edges of national politics has enabled us for over two centuries to debate and resolve even bitterly.
Electoral vote changes in future elections this is how the electoral map of the united states will change by 2030 and 2060 according to population projections. Mar 02, 2017 lets just assume that clinton and trump are running for 2020. New electoral college map comes into focus ahead of 2020. Larry sabatos crystal ball has made its first electoral college projections for 2020, and things are starting in a pretty competitive manner. Early census data shows electoral college advantage for.
Included are projections of enrollment, graduates, teachers, and expenditures to the year 2020. Maybe he was granted influence over the cabinet, or some judicial picks, or the platform. Electoral vote changes in future elections ravi parikhs. Steve bannons bold 2020 prediction has trump achieving a. Potential reapportionment change projections for 2020. Population estimates show reliably democratic states, like new york, california, and illinois will each lose at least one congressional district and representation in the electoral college. Its enough to tip the balance of power leftward, and away from the right. However, his seminal work was based on national correlations between economic conditions and presidential election outcomes. Reapportionment projections and the potential impact of. The moodys prediction model has been accurate since 1980 missing only once in its fourdecade history.
Top strategist projects narrow electoral college victory. As we get closer to the election, we will begin changing the electoral map, giving our gutfeeling on how the race is shaping up. If you have a question about politics, civics, history, etc. The census results will lead to a reapportionment of the 435 congressional districts across the 50 states. A top democratic strategist on tuesday projected his party would win a narrow electoral college victory over.
We look at how a campaign rooted in racial polarization could affect president trumps chances of winning in 2020. Updated 2020 reapportionment projections sabatos crystal ball. Its probably not lost on you, dear reader, that i am offering a forecast not for the presidential primary election, itself still in its infancy, but for the november 2020 general election that is some 16 months away. Jan 06, 2020 its no surprise that the left wants to subvert the census. To create your own forecast for the 2020 election, click on the states in the map to toggle them between democrat, republican and tossup and watch the electoral. The united states presidential election, 2020 will take place on november 3, 2020. Expanding the electoral college battleground by seth moskowitz posted october 24, 2019 key points from this article a presidential campaign strategy narrowly focused on pennsylvania, wisconsin, and michigan might work for the electoral college but could hurt a candidates party in downballot senate and house races. It will be the 59th quadrennial presidential election. Normal maps can be confusing when it comes to the electoral college. In some cases, eds found that arizona, oregon, andor virginia may also pick up an additional seat.
Nate silvers fivethirtyeight uses statistical analysis hard numbers to tell compelling stories about elections, politics, sports, science, economics and lifestyle. Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast. A postdemocratic primary update to the bitecofer model. Heres the projected electoral map after the 2020 census. Census projections showing electoral college gains for gop. The current electoral college ratings for the 2020 presidential election from. To read rec ent stories regarding the race for the presidency in 2020, click here 2020 electoral college ratings. He used statebystate population projections from proximity one and the huntingtonhill. Seattle has been one of the fastest growing cities in u.